Business confidence in Korea inches higher to 70

An improvement compared to the depressing low of 67 in November.

According to Nomura, the Bank of Korea‟s (BOK) Business Sentiment Index increased to 70 in January from 68 in December. This is the second monthly increase from the recent low of 67 in November 2012, which is the same as the October 2008 low of 67 (a month after the Lehman bankruptcy).

The Business Sentiment Outlook Index also rose to 72 for February, which suggests that the momentum of the growth recovery will continue in the coming month.

Here's more from Nomura:

As exports were 57% of GDP in 2012, Korea‟s business confidence is highly correlated with its exports. We expect Korean exports (in USD value terms) to surge by 23.0% y-o-y in January (Consensus: 10.9%), from a 5.7% drop in December due to positive base effects and a recovery in global demand.

We maintain our call for the BOK to keep rates on hold at 2.75% through 2013, as growth and inflation should rise only modestly from a low base.

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