China's import growth fell 15.2% in February
While overall trade surplus down to USD15bn.
According to Nomura, import growth was surprisingly low, at -15.2% (Consensus: -8.5%; Nomura: -10%). The overall trade surplus fell to USD15bn (Consensus: USD6.9bn).
Here's more:
China‟s exports rose by 21.8% y-o-y in February (Consensus: 8.1%; Nomura: -10%), despite the unfavorable base effect – the lunar new year fell in February this year but January last year. This is inconsistent with weak exports from Korea (-8.6% y-o-y) and Taiwan (-15.8%) in February, and the weak new export orders index in recent China PMI readings.
We believe the surprise may be down to capital inflows disguised as trade flows, where exporters may overstate their exports and understate their imports to move capital into China, circumventing capital controls.