Why the global aggregate demand is far from collapsing

It involves emerging Asian exports.

Amid the observation that the pickup in the "Asia 4"'s export growth in September was driven by shipments to the US and intra-Asia trade, it has been noted that these data suggest that global aggregate demand is far from collapsing.

According to a research note from Nomura, the pickup in the export growth in September of the "Asia 4"--China, Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore--was led by shipments to the US (10.3% y-o-y to 11.4%) and intra-Asia trade (3.1% to15.6%), which in turn reflects a rebound in exports to China (0.7% to 6.3%).

Further, the report noted that the Asia 4's export growth eased a little to the EU (12.1% to 11.1%), but the most notable destination of weakness was shipments to Japan (-2.2% to -4.5%).

The report said that the recovery in exports to China is encouraging, suggesting that policy easing measures there may be starting to take effect.

By contrast, a deeper contraction in exports to Japan is a discouraging sign for the Abe government, when it soon must decide whether or not to proceed with a second consumption tax hike.

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