Things looking good for global trade for rest of 2015

Despite a sluggish start.

After a slow start to the year, the economic momentum is gathering pace around the world, according to new findings by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC).

According to a research note from HKTDC, Nicholas Kwan, HKTDC Director of Research said that “although global economic growth has been sluggish in the first half of 2015, market conditions indicate that the external environment will improve in the second half of the year." 

Among mature markets, the United States is expected to be “the leader of the pack, with its growth momentum buttressed by lower unemployment, steady wage growth, improvements in the real estate market, shrinking household debt and strengthening consumer confidence,” said Daniel Poon, HKTDC Principal Economist (Global Research).

“In the EU, with the launch of a large-scale bond-buying scheme and the European investment plan to promote economic growth, the pace of recovery should pick up in the second half of this year and the next year.” 

Here's more from HKTDC:

In Japan, Mr Poon said “Abenomics” continues to bring positive effects to the economy, while the proactive monetary easing policy is driving exports and keeping the Japanese yen weak. Nevertheless, the slow progress of its economic structural reforms may hinder Japan’s recovery.

While urging Hong Kong companies to step up their sales efforts in traditional markets, Mr Poon also highlighted business opportunities in emerging markets, including the Chinese mainland, which is expected to enjoy moderate growth.

“While the Central Government has accepted that a lower economic growth is the new normal, it is still expected to roll out stimulus measures to maintain the vitality of the economy. The increase of free trade zones and the “One Belt, One Road” national strategic initiative will drive upgrading and development of the economy and tighten China’s links with the world economy.”

Growing integration in the ASEAN economies is also attracting foreign investment, which along with economic reforms and increased infrastructure investment, is stimulating Southeast Asian economies. Mr Poon said that the ASEAN economy is poised for rapid growth.