Hong Kong's 2013 economic growth predicted to hit 3%

A big jump vs last year's sluggish 1.4%.

According to Hang Seng Bank's Hong Kong Economic Monitor, there are several reasons why a synchronised global downturn is not their base case. 

Firstly, compared to last year, fundamentals in the US are more robust because of a recovery in the housing market, improving household balance sheets and more accommodative monetary conditions.

Here's more from the report:

Equally important, healing in the Eurozone banking system and diminished funding stress in the euro periphery shall greatly reduce systemic risk.

Last but not least, we see the first-quarter slowdown in Mainland economy as a cyclical issue provided that structural impacts should not cause abrupt changes in GDP growth, especially in the absence of major policy adjustments.

The Mainland economy will likely regain its vigor in the quarters ahead, buttressed by active fiscal policy and accommodative monetary conditions.

On balance, while the latest data challenged the widely-held view that the global economy will see a stable growth trajectory this year, the deceleration in global growth in 1Q13 is likely to be a soft patch in the road to recovery.

We still believe a moderate recovery scenario will likely emerge. Hong Kong, alongside other small open economies in Asia, will benefit from the revival in global growth over the second half. We remain confident that full-year growth could reach 3% this year, exceeding last year's dismal pace of 1.4%.