Hong Kong households to jump to a peak of 2.93m in 2044

But household size is expected to shrink.

The Census and Statistics Department published its Hong Kong Domestic Household Projections Up To 2049 report.

According to a research note from Barclays, the government forecasts that the number of household will grow from 2.43mn in 2014 to a peak of 2.93mn in 2044 and then slowly decline to 2.91mn in 2049.

For 2015-19 and 2020-24, the government expects 29,600 and 24,000 household formations each year, which is 15% less than the 34,600 and 28,500 household formations in 2002-06 and 2007-11.

Here's more from Barclays:

The average household size is projected to decrease from 2.9 in 2014 to 2.7 in 2049, following the past declining trend. During 2015-24, oneperson and two-person households will be the main source of growth in the number of domestic households. In addition, it also forecasts that there will be more female household heads.

The head of household is defined as the person making major decisions affecting the household. It revealed that in the 30 years spanning 1981-11, the ratio of the head of household being a <65-years-old male was decreasing while that being a ≥25-years-old female was increasing.

It also forecasts that this trend will be sustained. By 2049, 46.4% 40-44-years-old female will be household heads, which is up by 10.9ppt.