Growth in retail sales to crash to 0% in 2022 if…

In 2021, the growth in retail sales was 8.1%.

Growth in retail sales may shrink to 0% in 2022 from 8.1% in 2021, capital market firm Natixis CIB said in a report.

The fall in retail sales growth will likely happen "if social distancing measures remain as tight as they are now in the next few months,” the firm said.

The growth slowdown expected in 2022, however, is still much better than the sharp fall in retail sales by 24% in 2020.

“As a small and open economy, the rapid reduction in mobility driven by strict social distancing measures can be a big problem for Hong Kong, especially for consumption-related sectors,” the firm said.

To compensate  for the affected industries, the firm said the government should consider expanding its fiscal stimulus in the
upcoming budget.

“This cannot fully compensate the loss of business hours in brick-and-mortar stores, but it can at least somewhat ease the pressure,” the firm said.