Asia real credit growth feared to tread downhill: Fitch Ratings

Global real lending growth may slow in 2014.

Fitch Ratings said in its latest Macro-Prudential Risk Monitor that global real lending growth may slow in 2014 as a slowdown in emerging markets outside Europe outweighs a weak recovery in the developed world.

In Asia, which Fitch Ratings noted is the fastest-growing region, real credit growth is forecast to slow to around 9 percent in 2014 from 9.7 percent in 2013.

Here's more from Fitch Ratings:

A meagre 1.3% real credit growth is forecast in the developed world this year after a third year of slight contraction in 2013.

A similar pattern of slow expansion following modest contraction is evident in emerging Europe, where real credit growth is forecast to pick up to 3.7% this year after having turned positive last year (2.4%).
Elsewhere, credit growth remains much more robust, but continues to slow in Asia and Latin America and is forecast to moderate in Middle East and Africa in 2014, after a strong increase in 2013.

Credit growth has also been on a declining trend in Latin America, though at 8% last year and a forecast 7.5% this year, remains fairly robust. Last year saw a more than doubling in real credit growth in Middle East and Africa to 8.3% - but growth is forecast to fall back this year to 5.8%.

The pick-up was marked in some of the larger economies - Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria in sub-Saharan Africa and Morocco, UAE and Qatar in the Middle East/North Africa. Some of these countries are forecast to see material slowdowns this year.